Newsletter April 2025
This April was no different, and we would say it was the most volatile month we have ever seen in our 25 years in the game. It was a bloodbath of sorts with hedge funds printing plenty of negative returns.
Newsletter March 2025
Speculation about why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, Adrian Orr, left abruptly last month are rife but our personal favourite is that he cut interest rates too fast, or in our speak, he rushed headlong without a full grasp of economic data.
Newsletter November 2024
As highlighted in our September update, the fourth quarter, bolstered by its historic seasonality, presented a promising opportunity for the macro community. With the potential to generate over two-thirds of this year’s returns for the sector, the quarter was set to be a pivotal period. Now, with one month remaining, it appears we are well on track for this forecast to materialize.
Newsletter September 2024
As our readers may recall from our last edition that despite the market already coming a long way, we held the position that long duration along with both short and long end curve steepeners were a dog that still hunted, and hunt it certainly did. With short end yields some 50bp lower with the RBNZ upping the ante from
their initial 25bp cut in August to a 50bp cut at their October meeting. Corresponding with the repricing of the terminal rate curve for 2025, we saw a circa 50bp steepening in short duration curvature and a further 15-20bp steepening in the long end.
Newsletter August 2024
With the month of August having reached its conclusion – and for some, perhaps not quickly enough – it marks a significant milestone in the life cycle of the White Elk
trading strategy. September not only ushers in a new month but will also conclude our inaugural year of managing
investor capital.